Trot's Splits

2007-06-25T13:17:00.000-04:00

...This Blog, However, Is Not Dead

As a much more accomplished blogger than I once told me: "keep it simple." So here it goes..

But with all due respect to Dale, Melissa Jenna is the reason I'm dusting off. I dig her quirky spectacles, arched eyebrow and .

In other news: my youngest daughter is putting together a select youth soccer team via a regional club program. I can't afford it, but I'm quite certain if she doesn't participate she'll be one step closer to assuming a stage name like Aura or Mystique.

2006-01-28T17:05:00.000-05:00

Hola, Amigos. Been a Long Time Since I've Rapped At Ya'

First things first: sorry to my ones of readers who have patiently waited for the first post of 2006. As I said in the previous comments section, I've been bustin my arse in the saltmines. Second: my apologies for ripping off Jim Anchower's intro. My post will be nowhere near as enlightening as his would be. It's just the first intro that comes to mind.

A few posts ago, I gave a breakdown of NFL offenses and their yards per attempt metrics. Later, in the comments, Dale crowed about his draft strategy that had him cleverly snagging premium WR's in the first few rounds - eschewing the common run on RB's. My quick thought, then and now, is that premium RB's are worth more points (in most leagues) than premium WR's. To expand on this a bit, after looking at the '05 points totals for positions, I'd say that if you pick an elite WR in the 1st round are able to pick second-tier RB's in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounds (unlikely in bigger leagues), then Dale might be on to something.

Every year, I buy the fantasy guide published by Pro-Football Weekly (PFW). I've managed to save the last three pre-season guides, so I originally decided to take a pre/post look at positions for each season, beginning with 2005, using PFW guides against the final results from my Yahoo league. Subsequent posts (*promise*) will look at 2004 and 2003 seasons (assuming points data is available from Yahoo) and I'll need to break up the post a bit, any (really wish I knew html so I could set up tables).

Note: the Pigskin and Grits III league used a pretty common points system - Rushing=1pt/10 yds; 6pts/TD, etc; Receiving=1 pt/20 yds; 0.5pts/rec.; 6pts/TD; Passing=1pt/40 yds; 0.5pts/comp.; -0.5pts/Inc; 6pts/TD.

2005 WR Draft Board (PFW)
Rank/Player
1. R. Moss
2. T. Owens
3. T. Holt
4. M. Harrison
5. J. Walker
6. C. Johnson
7. A. Johnson
8. R. Wayne
9. J. Horn
10. H. Ward

2005 WR Final Points: Pigskin and Grits III
Rank/Player/Pts Total
1. S. Smith-208
2. L. Fitzgerald-186
3. C. Johnson-177
4. M. Harrison-170
5. T. Holt-169
6. C. Chambers-168
7. S. Moss-167
8. A. Boldin-167
9. J. Galloway-166
10. H. Ward-148

2005 RB Draft Board (PFW)
Rank/Player
1. P. Holmes
2. L. Tomlinson
3. S. Alexander
4. E. James
5. A. Green
6. C. Dillon
7. W. McGahee
8. C. Portis
9. D. McCallister
10. D. Davis

2005 RB Final Points: Pigskin and Grits III
Rank/Player/Pts Total
1. S. Alexander-365
2. L. Tomlinson-328
3. L. Johnson-326
4. T. Barber-305
5. E. James-271
6. C. Portis-247
7. R. Johnson-233
8. L. Jordan-231
9. T. Jones-203
10. S. Jackson-196

2005 QB Draft Board (PFW)
Rank/Player
1. P. Manning
2. D. Culpepper
3. D. McNabb
4. M. Vick
5. T. Green
6. K. Collins
7. B. Favre
8. M. Bulger
9. J. Plummer
10. T. Brady

2005 QB Final Points
1. C. Palmer-362
2. P. Manning-320
3. T. Brady-308
4. M. Hasselbeck-296
5. D. Brees-277
6. J. Plummer-252
7. D. Bledsoe-248
8. T. Green-248
9. J. Delhomme-239
10. M. Vick-232

Again, most point systems will value QB's and RB's over every other position. As a result, you have to consider the availability of elite QB's and RB's in the early rounds and hope they don't suck or get injured. But taking elite WR's in early rounds, and identifying 2nd-tier guys (see Johnson, Rudi) or correctly identifying the new Larry Johnson for later rounds, can also be a good strategy.

2005-12-22T15:38:00.000-05:00

Dude, They Just Signed Away the "Face of the Organization"

Yes, I wanted to resign Damon. I did say that 4 years at $40 million would get it done and, by all reports, thats what the front office offered. Coincidentally, this is also what got Varitek, another Bora$ client, resigned last winter. The difference, as always, is that when the Yankees need to fill a position through free agency, they are usually bidding against themselves.

Damon signed with the Yankees for 4 years at 52 million. Reportedly - as Damon curiously revealed during his interview with WEEI yesterday - he TURNED DOWN an offer for five (5) years with less annual average value (I forget the amount). I'm not sure why a guy signing what could be his last deal at age 33 turns down an additional year. He also said he turned down a sixth year from another team a "non-contender" (ahem, Tigers, cough) but declined to reveal who. Damon never came back to the Red Sox for a counter-offer. Thanks, dude.

Yesterday kinda sucked because Damon was the guy who seemed like he understood what it takes to put up with losers like me obsessing over a game that's impossible to explain to the disinterested. Red Sox fans are not afraid to tell you when you suck. They don't mindlessly cheer like fanboy automatons (I'm looking at you, Packer and St. Louis Cardinal fans) but when you give the effort Johnny gave for four years, they worship you like a god. Johnny Damon will never be regarded as highly in NY as he was in Boston. In NY, he'll be another high-priced free agent signing for Steinbrenner - a guy determined to taste as much of the 2004 Red Sox champion team as possible (see: Belhorn, Mark; Embree, Alan; Myers, Greg).

But what I don't get is ESPN obsessing (go link it yourself - should be easy to find) over: 1) the "disarray" of the Red Sox front office and the offseason, in general, and 2) the need to award the 2007 World Series title to the Yankees.

There's work to be done, but "disarray"?! Here's what makes me reluctant to call this offseason a total failure:

1. Trading Doug Mirabelli, the backup catcher, to the Padres for 2B Mark Loretta, a starter. This move fills an immediate need at 2B, created last year when Belhorn started to suck. Prospect Dustin Pedroia may need another 1/2 season in AAA before he's ready for major league at-bats. Mark Graffanino, last year's mid-season trade, probably can't be expected to continue to hit like he did down the stretch last year. Interestingly, Graffanino accepted the Sox offer for arbitration, which means he'll either stay with the team as a sub, or be included in an upcoming deal.

2. Trading Edgar Renteria and his salary to Atlanta for Andy Marte, the consensus best prospect in baseball. Edgar unsuccessfully tried to replace Orlando Cabrerra - the charismatic SS who somehow made everyone forget about Mr. Mia Hamm - in 2005. Marte is a 3B who is projected to produce somewhere in the neighborhood of Scott Rolen's numbers. He's also been mentioned as a chit that could be flipped for a CF or a SS. The downside of this move, a downside that's been mentioned in the media, is this move created an immediate hole at SS. Look for a push to get Cabrerra back from the Angels.

3. Traded prospects for P Josh Beckett and 3B Mike Lowell. You might remember Beckett as the guy who finished the Yankees in Game 6 of the 2003 WS. He's 25, under contract for two more years and has electric stuff. Mike Lowell was included as a salary dump. If he remembers how to hit, he'll allow Marte to get additional at-bats in AAA. Lowell could also be used as a 1B, but is reportedly too good defensively to waste at 1B.

4. Built bullpen depth. Signed Rudy Saenez from the Padres. Last year Saenez struck out 84, walked 22, while holding batters to a .222 AVG in 60 innings. Saenez - if he doesn't resume sucking (he's 37 and has occasionally sucked in recent years) - could be a guy who can come in and coax a strikeout with runners on base. You know, the guy the Red Sox lacked last year once Embree started sucking. They also signed Jason Van Buren - a guy the Cubs have inexplicably given up on despite posting solid K/BB ratios in AAA. Van Buren is a guy who is capable of getting outs in the majors if used properly. Guillermo Mota was included in the Beckett deal. Mota is another setup guy with decent K/BB. Timlin resigned.

5. Haven't taken less value for Manny. If Manny also wants out, fine. But he has a contract with $57 million left that he won't walk away from. If Manny nets Miguel Tejada or Mark Prior (two rumors), then I'd pull the trigger.

As far as the Yanks: they haven't won a title this century even though they've been spending money like drunken sailors. Before the 2004 offseason, they supposedly trumped the Red Sox by signing ARod and signing the corpse of Kevin Brown. We know how that turned out. Before last season, they were given the WS title by trading for Randy Johnson and overpaying for Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. This year, they sign Damon - who will now makes more than Miguel Tejada. Yep. Damon's average value will pay him $3 million more per year than the best SS in baseball. Initially, I thought it was a good deal for the Yanks, but I think had the Red Sox signed Damon for those terms, they'd get crucified. Rob Neyer, one of my daily reads at ESPN.com before he went 'Insider', called Damon the most overpaid player in baseball when the Sox signed him from the A's in 2002. I'm not saying I agree, just wondering why the Yankees suddenly got such a good deal.

2005-12-20T19:10:00.000-05:00

Bored with the 'Culture War'

Today's Federal Court decision regarding the Dover, Pennsylvania School Board should give angry white-guy talk radio and religious activists something to do for the next few months. My favorite representation of the notion of 'Intelligent Design' is from the presiding judge:

"To be sure, Darwin's theory of evolution is imperfect," Judge Jones wrote. "However, the fact that a scientific theory cannot yet render an explanation on every point should not be used as a pretext to thrust an untestable alternative hypothesis grounded in religion into the science classroom or to misrepresent well-established scientific propositions."

I'm not getting angry with the religious right, just bored. I'm sure this Jones fellow will be called an 'activist judge' by O'Reily, Limbaugh, et. al., or even have his life threatened in the next few days. Whatever. These days, I just want to be peacefully governed. And I am, usually. For this, I am grateful and feel fortunate to live in the United States of America. However, if my daughters bring home a science textbook that containing spiritual navelgazing, I'm moving to New Zealand.

G'day, Mate.

2005-12-15T10:08:00.000-05:00

Re-Sign Damon. Please.

4 years/$40 million with a club option for the 5th year is fair. The Yankees won't give him a 5th year (I hope). And we all know nobody's gonna give him a 6th or 7th year, like his agent has requested.

I can't picture the guy who brought down the Empire actually playing for the Empire. It would be worse than Clemens wearing those tacky pinstripes.

That is all.

2005-12-13T12:13:00.000-05:00

For Those About to Begin Fantasy Football Playoffs....

....I'm sure your wife/friends/co-workers are thrilled to hear about your roster(s). If you're not fortunate/lucky/skilled enough to have made your league's playoffs, I don't know what to tell you. Pretend you're a Colts fan, or something.

How are my teams doing? Well, since you asked. BOTH have made late-season runs into the Playoffs. "Smokes?" is my money-league team that placed third in an eight-team league in the standings in a four-team playoff format. "Proletariats" placed third in a twelve-team league with a six-team playoff format. I'm in new territory here.

Proletariats:

QB T. Brady/ QB C. Palmer/ WR S. Smith/ WR T. Houshmandzadeh/ RB C. Williams/ RB C. Dillon/ TE C. Cooley/ WR-RB M. Muhammad/ K M. Vanderjagt/ DEF Atlanta/ BN A.Pinner (RB)/ BN K. Jones (RB)/ BN G. Frerotte (QB)/ BN J. Feely (K)

Smokes?:

QB B. Favre/ QB D. Brees/ WR P. Burress/ WR C. Johnson/ RB D. Davis/ RB E. James/ TE T. Heap/ WR-RB C. Dillon/ K S. Janikowski/ DEF Seattle/ BN T. Housmandzadeh (WR)/ BN C. Williams (RB)/ BN J. Porter (WR)/ BN C. Perry (RB)/ BN D. Carr (QB)/ BN R. Williams (RB)/ BN D. Rhoades (RB)/ BN Miami (DEF)

WEEEEEE SALUUUUUUUUUUUUTE YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!! FIRE! [boom] FIRE [boom]

2005-12-09T17:42:00.000-05:00

First, a Moment of Silence for Dodger Fans....

..for the recent hire of Grady Little as your skipper for 2006. [/silence] Now cue the Krusty soundbite here: heh, heh, heh, arrrrrrrrghhhhhh. Don't worry: I'm not going to recap the 7th inning of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS or provide data that proved Pedro should have been removed to start the inning, let alone after giving up the double to Jeter, single to Bernie Williams, etc. Damn. Drooling f***ing idiot!!! j;lkjas;dlkjf;lkajlkjdsfahhhhhh. YOU STUMBLED INTO A GOOD BULLPEN USAGE PATTERN BY GAME 7!!!! WHY DIDN'T YOU USE IT?!?!?!dsfasdfas...FIVE (5) OUTS TO GO. FIVE!!!!

OK. Back on message. We must feel compassion for Dodger fans. Even the ones that arrive in Chavez Ravine sometime around the 3rd inning and leave after the middle of the 7th. If it's any consolation, the Dodgers aren't likely to finish much better that 80 wins in 2006, so Grady won't be able to inflict any psychic harm. You won't spend November of next year with that 1000 mile stare, wondering what might have been. Because you'll suck. You won't have a lineup that features Damon /Walker /Nomar / Manny/Ortiz /Varitek /Millar /Mueller. In other words, your offense won't be so good that the league's batting champion won't be batting 9th in the order. 9th. Your team won't be arguably better than the one that won the WS the very next year. (that might be a stretch, but the Red Sox offense was slightly better in 2003 than 2004. The pitching staff of the 2004 team was slightly deeper).

Whew. Hope it works out, Dodger Fan.

2005-11-18T10:49:00.000-05:00

Started Working on a Work-Related Spreadsheet with the Best of Intentions....

And I end up playing with my fantasy football league rosters. Damn you, Friday. I have two (2) teams and both, typically, are stuck in the middle of the pack. My leagues each play two (2) quarterbacks. My four starters are Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Brett Favre and Drew Brees. All have been healthy and relatively productive - a good thing considering that depth becomes a huge problem in 2 QB leagues. And one of my leagues plays with (12) teams; the other league plays with eight (8). So, yeah, recent bye weeks have had me starting the likes of Gus Frerotte (sp?), Kyle Orton and David Carr.

Looking for a QB that sucks less than the others can get difficult. Information is critical. "Moneyball" GM's in baseball are increasingly looking at metrics such as "on-base percentage" as a predictor of offensive production. In football, analysis in inherently difficult for a variety of reasons, but one measure that has gained some use is "average yards per pass attempt." The logic here is simple: high yards per pass attempts equal greater efficiency in producing big plays. Teams that make more, bigger plays win more games.

What? "I thought the team that runs the ball more often wins all the games?" Ahhh, yes. This is likely true. But context, or game situations, are probably more relevant with that argument. In other words, the team that is ahead in a game will usually run the ball more often. But I'll tackle that question on some other Friday. Furthermore, this isn't my model, so don't blame or praise me. I just felt like playing with Microsoft Excel for a few minutes.

Below are rankings for yards per attempt, as well as the yards per attempt compared against the league average (ATT+). What really strikes me is how many playoff caliber teams are near the top of the league. The only outliers - in this case, the teams likely headed to the playoffs but performing well below league are Atlanta (good defense) and Chicago (good defense). The teams near the top of the rankings are all potential playoff teams.

TEAM/ YDS/ATT / ATT+
Carolina/7.98/1.53
Indianapolis/7.78/1.33
Dallas/7.68/1.23
Pittsburgh/7.61/1.17
Cincinnati/7.54/1.10
New England/7.54/1.10
San Diego/7.46/1.01
Seattle/7.23/0.79
St. Louis/7.20/0.75
Philadelphia/6.75/0.31
Oakland/6.74/0.29
Denver/6.73/0.29
Green Bay/6.67/0.22
Jacksonville/6.65/0.20
Cleveland/6.64/0.19
New York (N)/6.53/0.08
Kansas City/6.53/0.08
Washington/6.46/0.02
Arizona/6.43/-0.02
Tampa Bay/6.37/-0.07
New Orleans/6.08/-0.37
Minnesota/6.00/-0.44
Miami/5.94/-0.51
Tennessee/5.90/-0.55
Atlanta/5.86/-0.58
New York (A)/5.54/-0.90
Detroit/5.38/-1.07
Baltimore/5.17/-1.27
Buffalo/5.02/-1.43
Chicago/4.83/-1.62
San Francisco/4.51/-1.93
Houston/4.42/-2.02

2005-11-15T13:33:00.000-05:00

Congrats, on the AL MVP, A-Rod.

Believe it or not, by any measure, you deserved it. But, uh, Alex, how many rings do you have? Huh? None?! Zero?! Wow.

No big deal. Even if that's the reason you ultimately signed with the Yanks. It's just that, you know, that guy rounding the bases to our left. Yeah, David Ortiz - you know the guy who was egregiously discounted in this year's MVP balloting because he doesn't stand at 1B with a glove in his hand, the same guy who has single handedly challenged SABR theories that clutch hitting does not exist? See, he has a ring.

Now go away, you pud. Finish that last fake-ass interview so I don't have to see or hear from you until you ground into another double play when your team needed you to actually produce in a high leverage game situation (see 2005 ALDS, Game 5). (That last half of the previous sentence was stat geek for "you choke in clutch situations" - even though 'clutch' doesn't officially exist).

2005-11-11T15:15:00.000-05:00

Hey! A Matching Pair of Socks!!!!!!

I've been married for....[/thinking] ...twelve (12) years and, like most couples of the last few decades, we do our best to each contribute to housework. Including laundry. Sometimes I "throw a load in the washer" sometimes my wife does, etc. The problem that I have had, increasingly over these twelve years - but intensifying since our youngest daughter, Chloe, was born in 1997 - is that I can't find a matching pair of socks. The only time my socks match is when I peel that sticker off of them on xmas morning. Once they go on my feet, are worn and then thrown into the dirty clothes, they will never, ever, see each other again.

My question - and it's completely serious and well intentioned - is how do other people get their socks to match. I'm completely open for suggestions? What do you guys do to ensure that you aren't wearing a black/brown combo? No suggestion will be considered too simple. Please. Help. I'd love to be able to lean back and cross my legs at my desk once in a while and not worry about someone walking into my office and see that I have a long grey sock on my left foot and a short argyle sock covering my right.

2005-11-09T16:33:00.000-05:00

I'm Gonna Make You Love Ronnie James Dio

(Four (4) Reasons)

The album cover for Holy Diver. I remember watching an interview with Dio - I think it was a VH1 "Best Album Covers" or something - and Dio commented on the controversy surrounding the cover's imagery. Paraphrased: "They asked me: 'how can you show a priest getting attacked by a demon?' I said 'How do you know that the priest wasn't the demon?'" Art - regardless if it conforms to your personal taste - isn't threatening. If you don't like or agree with the art, whatever the medium, don't buy it.
The Last in Line. My friend Barry and I were at Fenway Park about ten years ago. On this particular night - I think the Red Sox were playing the Albert Belle-era Indians - we each set personal records for money spent at concession stands. I'm not including the obligatory steak sandwich sold by independent vendors outside the park in the final analysis. Once inside the park we left our seat numerous times for beer, hot dogs, pizza, etc. I think I actually bought clam chowder. From a concession stand. Clam chowder. For some reason, each time one of us got up from our seat to donate another $20 to Aramark, we'd say "I'm off to the witch/I may never, ever, ever come home.." Every time I hear this song, I'm reminded of that steak sandwich that I inhaled on Landsdowne Street. But I had forgotten about the clam chowder.
Hungry for Heaven. I first heard this track on the Vision Quest soundtrack. The song is very '80's. You know, 'work really hard and reach for your dreams and you'll succeed' stuff: Just hold on/you can make it happen for you/reach for the stars and you will shine... Sorry. This song does, indeed, fire my ass up on occasion. A few years ago I was working really hard for a promotion at work. Nobody thought I'd get the appointment. Late nights. Wife was threatening me with life-changing ultimatums, and there was Dio with his cheeseball lyrics pushing me forward: You're a runner/but your chasing yourself/ feel the hot breath on your shoulder/ your emotion/ running cold, running warm/ the young just getting older/we are sunlight/we can sparkle and shine/and our dreams are what we're made of..
Man on the Silver Mountain. Maybe I should rename this reason "Because He Played with Ritchie Blackmore." Have you ever noticed that guitarists from that era had the best names? Jimmy Page. Keith Richards. Alex Lifeson. Kinda like wide receivers in the NFL: Amani Toomer. Donald Driver. I digress. The lyrics, with Blackmore at his peak, places this track on my exclusive "can't seem to get the volume loud enough" list. Come down with fire/ lift my spirit higher/ someone's screaming my name/ come and make me holy again..

2005-11-01T18:24:00.000-05:00

Have Pitchers and Catchers Reported Yet?

No. I'm not gonna whine about Theo Epstein stepping down as Red Sox GM. Really. After all those years of squandering talent - from selling Babe Ruth, passing on Jackie Robinson and Willie Mayes, trading Sparky Lyle, Cecil Cooper and Ben Oglive, John Tudor, Jeff Bagwell - it seemed like the Sox had put themselves on the cutting edge of front office baseball management by hiring Eptstein in 2002. Three straight 90 win seasons and one World Series later, Theo and Sox CEO Larry Lucchino apparently can't get along.

The divorce comes at a bad time with winter meetings coming up and impending trades (Wells, probably Manny) and other signings and positional holes to fill (Damon/CF; Millar/1B). That loud sound you hear in the background is the proverbial window slamming on a pretty decent run of success. Get ready for the ice age.

That's not whining. I don't feel like I'm whining.

2005-10-14T15:40:00.000-04:00

I Heart Coffee

I'm not learned enough to understand how the bug juice is somehow removed from the bean. Drinking decaf seems a bit like nursing an O'Douls. Not that I don't admire moderation or even abstinence. Whatever one's reason for drinking decaf - and there are legitimate reasons for certain people to totally avoid caffeine, and for all of us to enjoy it in relative moderation - why drink coffee only for its taste? Can someone explain this to me? There's got to be some explanation.

Ah, well. Apparently, the java isn't all that bad, and may carry some healthy byproduct.

2005-10-10T16:59:00.000-04:00

Theo Epstein's Post Post-Season "To Do List"

I've been reluctant to talk much about the Red Sox following their sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox this past week. Losing in the playoffs is a lot like getting dumped by a long-time girlfriend. You mope around for a few days, not really believing it. How could she/they could do this to you?

What about all the good times we had?! Was it all a lie?! I mean... didn't all those walk-off HR's mean something? 'Cause they sure did to me. Dammit WE CAN WORK THIS OUT!!!!!

Every song you hear on the radio reminds you of her (them): "Dirty Water" (played in Fenway at the end of a Red Sox victory); "Monkey Gone to Heaven" (The Pixies; often played as a reminder of the quick and violent death suffered by one annoying "Rally Monkey" during last year's ALDS when the Sox crushed the Angels), "Tessie" (Dropkick Murphy's song released last year to benefit the Jimmy Fund - Johnny Damon, Bronson Arroyo and Lenny DiNardo "sang" backup). And so on.

Ah well. Just "whistle through your teeth and spit" (as Jerry Garcia advised me during the summer of '87 when my high school girlfriend dumped me for some guy named Ron). Sorry that you feel that way/the only thing there is to say/every silver lining's got a/touch of grey/I will.../get by.....

The following is what I'm imagining to be Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein's "To Do List" for 2006:

Re-sign my Red Sox contract - it expires on October 31. [Post game/season comments from Theo seem to focus on next year. I'm still worried because something tells me that the ownership group isn't happy that Theo couldn't unload Manny Rameriez and his bubble-era contract.]
Contact uber-agent Scott Bora$ re: Johnny Damon. [Boras never hesitates to send his players to the open market (read: the Yankees) to leverage the most value. The free agent market for center fielders - especially ones that are ideal lead-off hitters - is barren this offseason. Watch for the Yankees and the Angels to push Damon to 5 years/$50 million. My guess is that the Red Sox will want to offer no more than 3/$27 million.]
Resolve the Manny issue - trade him for value or publicly state that he's not going anywhere in 2006. [Comes up every year. I'm beginning to think that ownership wants Manny's contract gone. In other words, this stuff that Manny wants to be traded is, at best, a half-truth perpetuated by ownership to justify trading a guy who hits 40 home runs and drives in 120 runs each year.]
Find a first baseman. [I loved Millar's walk to start the Game 4 rally. I like his personality. I don't, however, like that the Red Sox have a banjo-hitting 1B. The guy playing 1B should MASH. At least to the tune of AVG: .260/ OBP: .360/ SLG: .460/ OPS .820. Millar's OPS was roughly 100 points below this all season which means that the Red Sox regularly started a 1B that was near the bottom of the league in power relative to his position. Yeah, I know, the Red Sox led the league in runs scored as a team. That's not gonna happen every year and it won't happen in 2006 if Damon gets away. Maybe I'll find time to write about available 1B in a future post. Lyle Overbay or Adam Dunn are possible candidates.]
Sign/trade for another pitcher. [The lack of an ace was one of two big downfalls against the White Sox in the ALDS. The White Sox pitching staff contained the Red Sox lineup, which was weak all of the sudden from spots #5-#9 in the lineup (this was the other sudden weakness). An ace gets the Red Sox to a Game 5, at least, in this series. Overall, even if Wells and Schilling forget how old they are, and even if Arroyo's strikeout rate returns to his norm, and even if Papelbon joins the rotation, and even if Clement decides to pitch the second half of a baseball season, the Red Sox are filled with #3-type starters. Ideally, I'd like for the Red Sox to sign AJ Burnett and not have him suck or be a clubhouse tumor.]

2005-10-06T17:19:00.000-04:00

Forget Game 2 (5-4). Let the Knuckler Knuck.

TIM Wakefield starts starts Game 3 in Fenway. Being a big believer of the mojo, I'm not going to destroy his chances with any kind of rational thought or analysis in this post like I did with Wells yesterday.

On second thought, Wells pitched within his probable expectations given that he was on the road and injured (bad knees that got worse after he covered first base on the first out of the fourth inning). Moreover, the three-run homer in the fifth was unearned given Graffinino's error.

Give White Sox right-handed reliever Bobby Jenks credit - his reverse split against left handers (not to mention his 98 MPH fastballs) delivered the last six outs of the game. During the biggest at bat of the game (top 9th, Damon up, Graffanino on 2B with one out) he jammed Damon with a Rivera-like fastball (I think, it had pretty good movement) on the hands to force a pop-up. Renteria followed Damon with first pitch out to the SS. Game over.

2005-10-05T13:14:00.000-04:00

ALDS, Game 1: 14-2

ANY clue why Francona sent Clement out in the fourth inning? The Red Sox starting pitcher was clearly toast after hitting two batters and giving up five runs in the first inning. Clement recorded two of his ten outs with a sacrifice bunt and a caught stealing. Another out was a fielder's choice on a run scored. The balance of outs were recorded on sphincter-clenching shots to the warning track, it seemed.

Maybe Francona didn't feel like Clement's replacement out of the bullpen would fare better (and Gonzalez - the longman who followed Bradford's successful 1.1 innings- didn't). In the 4th inning, the game was briefly within reach at 6-2. If there's a brightside, Francona didn't use Timlin or Paplebon.

Here's to hoping David Wells, today's starter, can pitch well enough to allow the game's top offense to even this series. Wells - a portly 42-year-old lefty - generally produces numbers that defy convention. For example, in 2005 he has:

Pitched more effectively during higher pitch counts. From pitch #1 through #15, Wells has an ERA of 5.92; WHIP (walks and hits/innings pitched) of 1.52 and batters hit for a .333 average. From pitch #91 through #105 these numbers reduce to 4.02, 1.09 and .250 respectively. Across the board, he seems to be more effective after pitch #46.
Pitched better in Fenway. Left handed pitchers do not like pitching in Fenway. Bruce Hurst had a good year in '86. Bill 'Spaceman' Lee in '75. Hell, righthanders aren't thrilled with the task. The Green Monster is too close to batters. There's no foul territory. Pesky's Pole is 302' down right field. But Wells apparently digs Landsdowne Street. In away games (18 of them in 2005), Wells' ERA/WHIP/AVG is 5.56/1.49/.327. His Fenway splits (12 games): 3.07/1.09/.255.
Pitched more effectively against right handed batters. Wells' splits versus right handed batters: (WHIP/AVG/OBP (On Base %)/SLG (Slugging %)) is 1.21/.282/.302/.437. Versus. lefties: 1.68/.343/.383/.467. Not only do right handers have trouble getting on base, but they don't hit Wells with as much power.

Note: the White Sox lineup consists mainly of right handed batters. Let's hope Wells' 2002 stint in the South Side makes him feel like he's pitching in the Back Bay.

2005-10-03T17:38:00.000-04:00

Is That a Prada, Slappy?

MAYBE it's just me, but my fanboyism probably gets in the way of any objective opinion regarding Alex Rodriguez. However, it seems a bit hypocritical that he would have a problem with Buck Showalter compromising fair play by pulling his best players with a game that decided home field advantage for the Yanks matchup with the Angels in the ALDS:

"I just think there's a code of honor when so much is on the line," Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez said. "You hope people do the right thing, but you can't control what people do. It is what it is."

Yeah, uh, I'm gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you there, A-Rod.

Maybe Torre - who also whines in the aforementioned article - should have started Mike Mussina (apparently recovered from a midseason injury) rather than Jaret Wright (never recovered from overuse as a rookie in 1997) on Sunday, thus giving the Yanks a better chance to render irrelevant the Rangers/Angels outcome.

Maybe A-Rod should have cleanly fielded the grounder during Friday night's game against the Sox. You know, the nubber that went through the Gold Glover's legs and opened the flood gates? Read that quote again. Unbelievable. And this guy's gonna get the MVP award over Ortiz.

2005-09-29T17:36:00.000-04:00

Regardless of What Happens Next, Roberts Was Safe

OK. I'm probably upsetting any number of people by saying that this image captured one of the best moments of my life. I did not say the greatest - if forced to rank them - but rather one of the greatest.

The setting: bottom of the 9th, Red Sox down three (3) games to zero (0), behind 4-3 to the New York Yankees. Kevin Millar forces a base on balls against the greatest relief pitcher of his time - Mariano Rivera. Dave Roberts (pictured sliding head first) pinch runs for Millar. Following a number of close throws to first, Roberts attempts to steal second. Yankees catcher Jorge Posada makes a decent throw, but it 'bananas' a bit and Derek Jeter (probably the most overhyped player of this era) has to reach to his right to catch the ball. Somehow, Roberts was ruled safe. The umpire could have blown the call, but Roberts was called safe. I tumbled off my couch, where I had been chewing on my cell phone (don't ask: just be assured that I was convinced that this position compelled the Sox to keep the game close) and screamed. The next batter, Bill Mueller (The Professional Hitter) singled up the middle, Roberts came home and the game was tied. Everything was possible.

You're probably familiar with everything else. David Ortiz still hit a game winning home run well after midnight. The Sox won in 14 innings the next day. Then they had to win in Stade Fasciste with Curt Schilling's ankle tendon sewed to his skin. And they won Game 7 in a laugher, celebrating on the Yankee Stadium mound with Steinbrenner watching. The World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals was a mere formality.

In a few days the Red Sox reign as World Champs could end. The Yankees currently lead the American League East by one (1) game with four (4) games remaining in the season. A Yankee win tonight, coupled with a Sox loss to the Blue Jays means that the Red Sox must sweep the Yankees this weekend in Fenway in order to win the East. The Wild Card appears unlikely given that the Indians (where the hell did they come from, anyway?) are tied with the Sox in the wildcard standings and have to play the White Sox - who, today, clinched the Central. The White Sox will likely be resting many of their regulars and allowing their solid pitching staff some off days in order to 'set' the rotation for the playoffs. And I'm reluctant to admit that the Yankees have much more depth in their pitching staff than the Red Sox right now. That wasn't true last year. Damn.

I'm anxious, but ok if this all against the Red Sox. Roberts was safe.